Wesley's thoughts on the crisis in Burma

I was amazed at the level of the protests -- most of those in the streets weren't old enough to remember 1988 (similar pro-democracy protests that ended badly) -- just as I was not amazed at the brutality of the reaction. As for the future of the Burmese people...history is prologue. When the two countries that have the most influence over internal affairs are India and China, then you're in trouble. Unless and until the people are able to rise up in armed revolt (and where are they gonna get the guns?), nothing is going to change. We (the US) have no influence there b/c of our lack of engagement over the years so we stand on the sidelines incapable of doing anything short of a military invasion.

All despots rule by fear (aka negative reinforcement). But one basic rule is that the one who has the most guns rules. And that's the case in Burma. So who's going to step forward and be cannon fodder until they run out of ammo? That's the problem in Burma. And so if they have a military coup, the general or army officer who prevails just repeats the same pattern. Democratic tendencies are almost never found within the military. The entire structure of the military goes against democratic principles. (Can you have a military where people take orders and obey while at the same time also questioning authority? Difficult to damned near impossible.)

So I'm not pinning my hopes on a rational response from Than Shwe (top Burmese general) or on a military coup leading to freedom for the Burmese people. When you have a military leader/despot that spends hundreds of millions of dollars to build a new capital city on the advice of his astrologer and then marches civil servants to that city in a forced relocation, you're not dealing with someone whose behavior is predictable by usual measures of predictability.

Problem w/ Burma is that there are 17 different tribes and most want their own country. (See Iraq for a Middle East example.) They may be all Buddhist, but the tribal identity is so strong that they historically haven't played together very well in the sandbox that is modern day Burma. So strip away this repressive military regime and what do you have? It may be no prettier than Iraq, just with more warring factions.

That's why the US and the UK ought to go in there, topple that military, grant the generals immunity and find them a place for asylum, get them out of the country, and impose sufficient order to develop a working and stable government. Unlike Iraq, the Burmese would welcome us b/c they remember how good they had it under British rule compared to how it is today. So they'd welcome an invasion, as long as we promised not to colonize them again.

But none of the above is gonna happen. We're going to make hollow pronouncements about supporting democratic reform in Burma while the life of the military goes on as usual. And we're gonna leave the Burmese people to fend for themselves. That's American foreign policy when we're tied down to what was never a winnable war in Iraq.

As for activism, write your US Senators, write the President, write all Congressional Reps from your state. Tell them to put pressure on the UN to act, tell them to establish a full embassy in Yangon with an ambassador so we can engage the gov't there, tell them to lift the trade sanctions and instead put in place a set of guidelines for doing business within Burma. Trade sanctions like the ones we have in place are as hollow as the stomachs of the Burmese people who can't earn a living because we shut them off. People will never rise up and overthrow a government on empty stomachs. Look at Cuba -- it simply hasn't worked, nor will it. So write them all and tell them to get off their sanctimonious asses and do something that's good for the Burmese people while putting in place a system to ensure that the government doesn't benefit from the trade.

Wesley King is a management professor at the University of Dayton. Each summer he organizes and leads a group of students on an Asia study abroad program with a focus on SE Asia.